Russia Suffers Heavy Losses in Ukraine War, but Putin Remains Determined
A declassified US intelligence assessment reveals the extent of Russia’s losses in the ongoing Ukraine war, with a significant decrease in active-duty ground troops and tanks. Despite these losses, Russian President Vladimir Putin is determined to continue the war as Ukraine remains vulnerable.
Russia has experienced significant losses in its ongoing war with Ukraine, according to a declassified US intelligence assessment. The report reveals that Russia has lost 87 percent of its active-duty ground troops and two-thirds of its tanks since the invasion of Ukraine. Despite these heavy losses, Russian President Vladimir Putin remains determined to push forward as the war approaches its two-year anniversary. US officials warn that Ukraine remains vulnerable, with a stagnant counteroffensive and limited prospects for major gains in the coming months.
Russia’s Losses and War Effort
The declassified US intelligence assessment highlights the extent of Russia’s losses in the Ukraine war. Russia has lost 315,000 troops out of the 360,000 that made up its pre-invasion ground force. Additionally, 2,200 out of 3,500 tanks and 4,400 out of 13,600 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers have been destroyed, representing a significant loss rate. These losses have set back Russia’s efforts to modernize its ground force by 15 years.
Despite these losses, Russia has managed to sustain its war effort by relaxing recruitment standards and utilizing older equipment from Soviet-era stockpiles. However, the assessment notes that Russia has experienced a 32 percent reduction in its ground forces equipment stockpiles since the invasion. This has limited the complexity and scale of Russian offensive operations, resulting in a lack of major gains in Ukraine since early 2022.
Political Challenges for Ukraine
While Russia’s losses in the war are significant, the political environment in Washington poses a greater challenge for Ukraine. Some Republicans have opposed providing additional funding to Ukraine, and Senate Republicans are pushing to include Ukraine funding as part of a broader spending package that includes support for Israel, Taiwan, and the US southern border. The Biden administration warns that the US will soon run out of funds for Ukraine.
The debate over funding raises questions about the ambition and effectiveness of financial support for Ukraine. Critics argue that the goal of pushing Russia back to its 1991 borders is unrealistic and question the impact of additional funding. However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to Washington aims to secure military and economic aid, which he believes is crucial for Ukraine’s ability to continue the fight against Russia.
Putin’s Determination and Western Support
Despite the losses and limited gains, Russian President Vladimir Putin remains determined to continue the war. The declassified intelligence suggests that Russia believes a military deadlock throughout the winter will drain Western support for Ukraine, ultimately giving Russia the advantage. This strategy is based on the assumption that Western countries will tire of the conflict and withdraw their support, despite Russian losses and shortages of trained personnel, munitions, and equipment.
The Russian Ministry of Defense has announced plans to increase the size of its armed forces from approximately 900,000 to 1.5 million since the start of the invasion. Russia has also relied on convicts enlisted by the Wagner Group and increased the age limit for certain categories of citizens to remain in the reserve of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.
Conclusion:
The declassified US intelligence assessment reveals the extent of Russia’s losses in the ongoing Ukraine war, with significant decreases in active-duty ground troops and tanks. Despite these losses, Russian President Vladimir Putin remains determined to push forward as the war approaches its two-year anniversary. Ukraine continues to face political challenges in securing additional funding, while Russia hopes for a military deadlock that will drain Western support. The future of the war remains uncertain, with Ukraine’s vulnerability and Russia’s determination as key factors shaping the conflict.