24 Numbers to Watch in the New Year: Key Indicators for the 2024 Election
From voter demographics to campaign spending, these numbers will shape the upcoming election.
The 2024 election is already generating buzz and speculation, with potential candidates jockeying for position and strategists analyzing every data point. As we enter the new year, there are several key numbers to keep an eye on that will provide valuable insights into the upcoming election. From voter demographics to campaign spending, these numbers will shape the political landscape and determine the outcome of the race. Let’s dive into the 24 numbers to watch in the new year.
1: Donald Trump’s share of white evangelical Christian votes in Iowa
In 2020, Trump dominated the white evangelical Christian vote in Iowa, and it will be interesting to see if he can maintain that support in the upcoming election. A recent poll shows Trump leading Ron DeSantis among this key demographic, solidifying his position as the frontrunner in the Republican primary.
2: Nikki Haley’s vote share among women in New Hampshire
Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor, is positioning herself as a strong contender in the Republican primary. However, she faces a gender gap among women voters in New Hampshire. It will be crucial for Haley to improve her support among women if she wants to secure an upset victory in the second GOP contest.
3: Write-in vote share for “Joe Biden” in New Hampshire
While President Biden’s name won’t be on the ballot in the New Hampshire primary, his allies have launched a write-in campaign to deny Rep. Dean Phillips any momentum. The success or failure of this write-in effort could have implications for Biden’s standing in the Democratic Party.
4: Biden’s approval rating
Biden’s approval rating will be a key indicator of his chances for reelection. Historically, presidents with approval ratings below 50 percent have struggled to win a second term. As of now, Biden’s average approval rating stands at 40.5 percent, according to RealClearPolitics.
5: Number of Donald Trump convictions before Election Day
Despite facing multiple felony charges, Donald Trump’s standing with Republican primary voters remains strong. However, polling suggests that a conviction could have a significant impact on his overall standing with the electorate. The number of convictions Trump faces before Election Day will be closely watched.
6: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index
Consumer confidence is a crucial factor in determining the economic outlook and can influence voting behavior. An uptick in consumer confidence measures at the end of the year could indicate an improving economic situation, which could benefit the incumbent party.
7: Number of states where Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is on the ballot
Third-party candidates can complicate the electoral math, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has shown strong appeal in polls so far. The number of states where Kennedy is on the ballot, along with other third-party candidates, could have a decisive impact on the election outcome.
8: Number of general election debates for president
The Republican National Committee’s promise to boycott the Commission on Presidential Debates raises questions about the future of televised debates. The number of debates scheduled and the participation of both parties will be crucial in providing voters with the opportunity to hear from the candidates.
9: Number of states visited by Biden in the final two months of the campaign
Biden’s campaign stops in the final months of the election will be indicative of his strategy and focus. While Biden faced pandemic restrictions in 2020, he will have more flexibility in 2024. The number of states visited by Biden will reveal his efforts to secure a victory.
10: General election turnout rate
The turnout rate in the general election will provide insights into the enthusiasm and engagement of voters. Will 2024 see a high turnout similar to 2020, or will it be more in line with 2016? The turnout rate will be a key factor in determining the outcome of the election.
11: The enthusiasm gap
The enthusiasm of voters can play a significant role in determining election outcomes. In 2020, Trump voters were more enthusiastic than those backing Hillary Clinton. The enthusiasm gap is repeating itself even with Biden in the White House, with many of his supporters motivated by opposition to Trump rather than support for the incumbent.
12: The Biden-Trump split among voters who dislike both candidates
Views of both Biden and Trump have become more negative since the last election, making this a crucial voting bloc. A recent poll showed Biden leading among voters who dislike both him and Trump, indicating the importance of this group in the upcoming election.
13: The Biden-Trump split among voters who “somewhat disapprove” of Biden’s job performance
The ability of Biden to retain voters who “somewhat disapprove” of his job performance will be crucial for the Democrats. In the midterms, these voters broke evenly among the two parties, contributing to the Democrats’ better-than-expected results. Can Biden hold onto enough of these voters when he’s on the ballot himself?
14: The Biden-Trump split among women voters without college degrees
Women voters without college degrees represent a significant demographic that could impact the election outcome. In 2020, Biden narrowly beat Trump among this group, and it will be interesting to see if he can maintain that support in 2024.
15: Biden’s vote share among voters younger than 30
Biden’s success among young voters was crucial in his 2020 victory. However, recent polls show Trump gaining ground among this demographic. Whether there has been a significant shift among young voters or if it’s a false signal will be a key factor to watch.
16: Biden campaign ad spending in Florida
Florida is a crucial swing state, and the Biden campaign’s ad spending in the state will reveal their strategy and level of investment. Democrats maintain that they are not writing off Florida, but the absence of ad spending in the second half of 2023 raises questions about their approach.
17: Republican ad spending on abortion messaging
Abortion remains a significant issue for voters, and the messaging surrounding it can impact election outcomes. The amount of ad spending by Republicans on abortion-related messaging will indicate whether they have found an effective campaign message or if they are avoiding the issue altogether.
18: Number of states with abortion ballot measures
Activists in several states are attempting to put abortion-related initiatives on the 2024 ballots. The outcome of these measures will provide insights into the public’s stance on abortion rights and could influence voter turnout and candidate support.
19: National murder rate
The murder rate has seen a significant decrease, but the salience of crime as an issue in the election remains to be seen. The impact of crime on voter behavior, particularly in areas where Republicans made gains in the previous election, will be important to watch.
20: Number of competitive Republican Senate primaries
The Republican Party’s path to winning control of the Senate relies on flipping Democratic-held seats. In several targeted states, the party faces competitive primary races that could impact their chances of securing a majority.
21: Candidates on the Arizona general-election ballot for Senate
The fate of Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s seat in Arizona will be closely watched. Will she attempt an independent bid for a second term, or will the race come down to a conventional Democrat versus Republican matchup?
22: Democrats who qualify for the general election for Senate in California
California’s Senate race has seen a potential clash between prominent Democrats, but the rise of Republican Steve Garvey in the polls could disrupt that matchup. The outcome of the Democratic primary will have implications for the general election.
23: House districts flipped by Democrats in New York
New York’s redistricting efforts will play a significant role in determining the balance of power in the House. The number of districts flipped by Democrats will indicate the party’s chances of regaining the majority.
24: Number of House retirements
The number of House retirements will have implications for both parties. Currently, 23 Democrats have announced their retirement, potentially complicating the party’s path to the majority. The retirement peak typically occurs after the holidays, so more announcements are expected.
Conclusion: As the 2024 election approaches, these 24 numbers will provide valuable insights into the political landscape and shape the outcome of the race. From voter demographics to campaign spending, each number represents a crucial factor that will determine the path to victory for candidates. By closely monitoring these indicators, we can gain a deeper understanding of the dynamics at play and make more informed predictions about the future of American politics.